Abstract
In 2018 the fungal pathogen Cryptococcus bacillisporus (AFLP5/VGIII) was isolated for the first time in Chile, representing the only report in a temperate region in South America. We reconstructed the colonization process of C. bacillisporus in Chile, estimating the phylogenetic origin, the potential spread zone, and the population at risk. We performed a phylogenetic analysis of the strain and modeled the environmental niche of the pathogen projecting its potential spread zone into the new colonized region. Finally, we generated risk maps and quantified the people under potential risk. Phylogenetic analysis showed high similarity between the Chilean isolate and two clonal clusters from California, United States and Colombia in South America. The pathogen can expand into all the temperate Mediterranean zone in central Chile and western Argentina, exposing more than 12 million people to this pathogen in Chile. This study has epidemiological and public health implications for the response to a potential C. bacillisporus outbreak, optimizing budgets, routing for screening diagnosis, and treatment implementation.
Highlights
The pathogenic Cryptococcus species complexes, Cryptococcus neoformans and Cryptococcus gattii, are the etiological agents of cryptococcosis, an invasive fungal disease with a high mortality rate and high public health costs worldwide (Mourad, 2018)
Previous studies have identified the spatial distribution of C. neoformans and C. gattii species complex distributions in Europe through the ecological niche modeling of their bioclimatic conditions suitable for their survival (Cogliati et al, 2017; Alaniz et al, 2020), methodology that has been succesfully applied to other recent global infectious diseases (Alaniz et al, 2017, 2018)
Cluster C1 included 25 sequence type (ST) belonging to serotype C isolates from North and South America, cluster C2 was represented by two STs of isolates from Mexico and United States, and C4 grouped four STs from Mexico which are genetically very distant from the other VGIII STs
Summary
The pathogenic Cryptococcus species complexes, Cryptococcus neoformans and Cryptococcus gattii, are the etiological agents of cryptococcosis, an invasive fungal disease with a high mortality rate and high public health costs worldwide (Mourad, 2018). Previous studies have identified the spatial distribution of C. neoformans and C. gattii species complex distributions in Europe through the ecological niche modeling of their bioclimatic conditions suitable for their survival (Cogliati et al, 2017; Alaniz et al, 2020), methodology that has been succesfully applied to other recent global infectious diseases (Alaniz et al, 2017, 2018) Considering the latter, the aim of this study is to analyze: (i) the geographical and phylogenetic origin of the sample; (ii) the potential geographical spread in this new area; and (iii) the population exposed to the risk. The achievement of these objectives may contribute to generate focused surveillance and preventive actions that could help to understand the potential negative health consequences in the population
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