Abstract
Agriculture in the boreal and Arctic regions is perceived as marginal, low intensity and inadequate to satisfy the needs of local communities, but another perspective is that northern agriculture has untapped potential to increase the local supply of food and even contribute to the global food system. Policies across northern jurisdictions target the expansion and intensification of agriculture, contextualized for the diverse social settings and market foci in the north. However, the rapid pace of climate change means that traditional methods of adapting cropping systems and developing infrastructure and regulations for this region cannot keep up with climate change impacts. Moreover, the anticipated conversion of northern cold-climate natural lands to agriculture risks a loss of up to 76% of the carbon stored in vegetation and soils, leading to further environmental impacts. The sustainable development of northern agriculture requires local solutions supported by locally relevant policies. There is an obvious need for the rapid development of a transdisciplinary, cross-jurisdictional, long-term knowledge development, and dissemination program to best serve food needs and an agricultural economy in the boreal and Arctic regions while minimizing the risks to global climate, northern ecosystems and communities.
Highlights
Global warming has serious consequences for provision of goods and services from all ecosystems, and will affect social and economic sectors, including agriculture (Ray et al, 2019)
In the cold-climate boreal and Arctic regions, referred to as northern regions (King et al, 2018), climate change is occurring at a historically unprecedented rate (Bush and Lemmen, 2019) substantially affecting regional land use and the interlinked socioeconomic conditions for the 0.2 billion people currently living in northern countries
When northern grasslands are cultivated (Figures 1C,D), the stores of historically accumulated soil organic carbon decompose rapidly leading to high nitrogen mineralization rates. This transient boost in soil fertility favors leaching of dissolved nitrogen and the emission of nitrous oxide, a potent greenhouse gases (GHG) (Grünzweig et al, 2004). Given these considerable impacts of land use and land use changes (LULUC) on the unique and diverse northern soils, the success of expanded and intensified agriculture in the northern regions will be strongly dependent on adapting land use, soil management (IPBES, 2019) and the protection of the critical carbon stock of intact peatlands (Leifeld et al, 2019)
Summary
Global warming has serious consequences for provision of goods and services from all ecosystems, and will affect social and economic sectors, including agriculture (Ray et al, 2019). In the Canadian prairies and Mongolia, legislation favors the northward areal expansion of commercial agriculture, even in the absence of explicit policies or strong local population pressures. This creates opportunities for direct integration of new northern agricultural production in the global agricultural commodity markets. Given the potential for positive feedback loops in the global carbon cycles, consistent consistent agro-environmental policy goals regarding agricultural intensification and expansion (e.g., variable LULUC), are necessary. This perspective addresses key issues associated with expansion and intensification of agriculture in northern regions, focusing on crop production, including forage, socio-economic frameworks and relevant policies. We highlight the context and consequences of agricultural expansion into the northern regions and identify scope, needs, and directions of integrated policies to support multi-disciplinary research and development for minimizing undesirable outcomes for local populations and ecosystems
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