Abstract
Bio-plastics are rapidly growing in popularity, and many new techniques and approaches are emerging as a result of intensive research and development (R&D) activities. Many industries worldwide are installing their new production capability. Bio-plastics have attracted political leaders’ interest, especially in light of the evolving bio-economic orientation, through their use of renewable resources and their effects on sustainable growth. Related market determinants are defined, classified, and used as a base for their own estimates. The evolution of global production capacity is modeled annually for the timeframe up to 2030 by applying a system dynamics strategy. For a long-term forecast to catch the inherent volatility, various scenarios are identified and added to the model to represent different trends in the price of gross domestic product (GDP), oil, and bioplastic feedstock. Thus, our findings show the sensitivity in the macro-economic climate of the bioplastics sector. The simulations are completed by a debate on the regulatory environment and its future effect on industry development at the European level. The findings show considerable potential for development but are vulnerable to political and economic impacts.
Highlights
The functional and structural characteristics of bioplastic are similar to plastics and are extracted, in whole or in part, from biomass materials [1]
There are few regulations on bio-plastics worldwide, just as there are few on bioplastics and other materials directly
It is clear that bioplastics have a relative disadvantage over biofuels as policy reviews are underway in various countries
Summary
The functional and structural characteristics of bioplastic are similar to plastics and are extracted, in whole or in part, from biomass materials [1]. Bioplastics have become more advanced in applications, such as manufacturing aerospace parts for extreme environments, beyond the initial plain packaging applications [2] This involved the invention of novel molecules, the combination of molecules, the quest for novel polymers, and eventually, efforts to produce petro-plastics similar to thermoplastics but using bio-based recycled raw materials. The development of production capacities for biodegradable bio-based plastics is modeled annually by applying the device dynamics modeling and expanding on traditional approaches by Horvat, Wydra, and Lerch [15]. Three separate economic scenarios have been developed to catch the inherent volatility of such a long-term forecast These illustrate the various trends in key backdrop variables such as GDP, crude oil, and bio-plastic feedstock price. Throughout the context of the existing and possible future European policy frameworks, the simulation findings will later be addressed to illustrate the relevance of creating a supportive policy base for business growth in this sector
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