Exotic plant species with longer seed bank longevity and lower seed dry mass are more likely to be invasive in China

Abstract

Abstract Globalization of social and economic activities has led to the large-scale redistribution of plant species. It is still unclear how the traits aid the successful invasion of alien species. Here, we downloaded global plant trait data from the TRY-Plant Trait Database and classified alien species in China into four groups: high, medium, need attention and harmless according to their distribution and degree of harm to local plant communities based on existed studies. The relationship between plant functional traits and invasion level was clarified, and we established a prediction model based on plant functional traits and taxonomy. The results showed that species with smaller seeds, smaller individuals, lower special leaf area and longer seed bank longevity (SL) are more likely to be an invasive species after introduction to foreign ecosystems. In summary, exotic species with longer SL and lower seed dry mass are more likely to be invasive in China. We also trained two predictive models to check if we can predict a species’ invasion. Combining the two models together, statistically, we could predict if a species is invasive from its traits and taxonomy with a 91.84% accuracy. This model could help local governments, managers and stakeholders to evaluate shall we introduce some plant species in China.