Exogenous Challenge in Yakutian Permafrost Areas: Analysis and Forecast

Abstract

The paper discusses exogenous processes and dangers associated with their intensification on the plains and in the mountains of Yakutia in the XXI century. It has been established that these processes result from natural and climatic anomalies caused by changes in the climate. The first wave of hazardous exogenous processes swept over the plains of Central Yakutia at the beginning of the XXI century (from 2002 to 2004). This wave was triggered by a series of dry summers, which caused forest fires of unprecedented scale and the subsequent intensification of freeze-thaw processes in the areas impacted by the fires. The second exogenous wave which impacted the area a decade later (from 2012 to 2015) was triggered by positive anomalies caused by an increase in atmospheric humidity. The impact of this wave was especially vivid in mountainous areas, in the spurs of the Verkhoyansk Range in particular, where significant damage was caused to roads and other linear structures. A key role in the intensification of slope processes was played by seasonal flooding and suprapermafrost water processes which triggered large-scale landslides of Quaternary sediments. It has been found that climatic and exogenous anomalies can be attributed to solar maxima and minima in 11-year (Schwabe-Wolf) solar cycles. It can be expected that the next exogenous wave will hit the area at the maximum of the current 11-year cycle from 2023 to 2025.