Abstract

Debates on an EU-leaving referendum arose in several member states after Brexit. We want to highlight how the exit of an additional country affects the power distribution in the Council of the European Union. We inspect the power indices of the member states both with and without the country which might leave the union. Our results show a pattern connected to a change in the number of states required to meet the 55% threshold. An exit that modifies this number benefits the countries with high population, while an exit that does not cause such a change benefits the small member states. According to our calculations, only the exit of Poland would be supported by the qualified majority of the Council.

Highlights

  • The withdrawal of the United Kingdom (UK) from the European Union (EU), Brexit, and its possible effects have become the subject of political debate in several countries like the Czech Republic, France, or Greece since the membership referendum in 2016 [1].In 2021, a possible Polexit (Poland’s exit) has emerged [2]

  • Numerous political and economic effects of an exit from the European Union might be worth inspecting, in this paper we look at one aspect: how the power distribution changes in the Council of the European Union

  • Pursuant to the Treaty of Lisbon, the qualified majority voting is successful in the Council of the European Union if Represent at least 65% of the inhabitants

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Summary

Introduction

The withdrawal of the United Kingdom (UK) from the European Union (EU), Brexit, and its possible effects have become the subject of political debate in several countries like the Czech Republic, France, or Greece since the membership referendum in 2016 [1].In 2021, a possible Polexit (Poland’s exit) has emerged [2]. The withdrawal of the United Kingdom (UK) from the European Union (EU), Brexit, and its possible effects have become the subject of political debate in several countries like the Czech Republic, France, or Greece since the membership referendum in 2016 [1]. Numerous political and economic effects of an exit from the European Union might be worth inspecting, in this paper we look at one aspect: how the power distribution changes in the Council of the European Union. The voting system of the Council of the European Union has long been the subject of academic interest. Brams and Affuso [3] have used the example of the Council to show real-life occurrence of the new member paradox: Luxembourg has gained more voting power with the joining of Denmark, Ireland, and the United Kingdom in 1973.

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