EXIT OF SENIOR AGE COHORTS FROM THE RUSSIAN LABOUR MARKET: A SURVIVAL ANALYSIS APPROACH

Abstract

The paper examines individual exit trajectories of Russians from the labour market to economic inactivity using survival analysis methods based on the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey for 1995-2015. The analysis shows that the statutory retirement age (55 for women and 60 for men) has a significant impact on the time of exit from the labour market for both sexes, but the effect is significantly higher for women, and the differences are statistically significant: the hazard rate of exit to inactivity rises by 63 percentage points when a woman reaches 55 years of age, but by only 25 percentage points when a man reaches 60.Russiashows some differences in occupational patterns of exit to pension-age inactivity: unlike many developed countries, only highly skilled staff remain in the labour market longer than others, while there is no statistically significant difference between the behaviour of middle-skilled staff and of skilled and unskilled workers. Self-employment and entrepreneurship postpone exit to inactivity as does employment at state enterprises.