Executive Elections in the Arab World: When and How Do They Matter?

Abstract

Although elections loom large in the study of nondemocracies, scholars continue debating what function those elections play. This article sets evidence from the Arab world in a global context to evaluate three theorized roles for elections: safety valve, patronage network, and performance ritual. Executive elections in the Middle East and North Africa remain less common and less competitive than polls in sub-Saharan Africa and Asia. This profile is largely consistent with the observable implications of leading theories. The data, though, also show theoretically rich differences. Although levels of competition and participation in Yemen, Tunisia, and Algeria fit expectations about elections being safety valves or political spectacles, Egypt’s presidential election stands apart, with exceptionally meager public involvement. In such circumstances, where competition and turnout are both unusually low, other social and political phenomena may matter more than elections for regime survival, resource distribution, and the manifestation of state power.