Abstract
This paper suggests a procedure for estimating excursion probabilities for linear and non-linear systems subjected to Gaussian excitation processes. In this paper, the focus is on non-linear systems which might also have stochastic properties. The approach is based on the so-called “averaged excursion probability flow” which allows for a simple solution for the interaction in excursion problems. Simplifying, the dynamic reliability problem can be reduced to a simpler “static” problem by considering the probability flow at fixed time instances. The proposed approach is very general and can be applied to both linear and non-linear systems of which the response can be determined by deterministic methods. Hence, the procedure applies to arbitrary structures and any suitable mathematical model including large FE-models solved by deterministic FE-codes.
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