Exclusion, violence, and optimism: Ethnic divides in Kyrgyzstan

Abstract

The nation-building projects in much of post-socialist Eurasia have been characterized by the promotion of ethnic majorities and marginalization of minority groups. In dialogue with the scholarship on nation-building, ethnic exclusion and conflict, and ethnic migration, this study examines individual views on current and future interethnic relations, assessments of prospects for own ethnicity, expectations for future economic changes, and intentions to migrate abroad in the multiethnic nation of Kyrgyzstan. I use nationally representative survey data to model differences in these outcomes across the majority-minorities divides and between regional subgroups of the nation’s ethnic majority. The results show that a native minority that experienced recent ethnic violence has the most negative assessment of current interethnic relations. However, the minority group of outside origin, which never suffered direct violence but whose size and societal preeminence have eroded rapidly, is least optimistic about the future and is most inclined to migrate. Yet, the analyses also detect substantial regional differences within the ethnic majority, underscoring the complexity of historically-rooted ethnocultural and socioeconomic cleavages as well as of more recent political experiences. I interpret these findings within the context of evolving meanings of ethnic identity and national belonging in this rapidly changing society.