Exchanging atoms for influence: Competition in Southeast Asia’s nuclear market

Abstract

ABSTRACT Although nuclear energy has yet to enter any of the energy mixes of the countries of Southeast Asia, there is the potential that some of these countries – in particular the Philippines, Indonesia, and Thailand – will launch nuclear energy generation projects in the near future. Despite rampant anti-nuclear sentiment in the region (exacerbated by the 2011 Fukushima incident), the need to meet fast-growing energy demands while simultaneously reducing carbon emissions has caused some Southeast Asian countries to consider nuclear energy as a theoretically clean, safe, and reliable alternative to fossil fuel. To satisfy this potential Southeast Asian nuclear market, China, Russia, South Korea, and Japan are stepping in. Each of these countries has strengths and weaknesses as a nuclear vendor. Consequently, given the enormous strategic as well as economic benefits that nuclear exports offer, countries that make forays into the Southeast Asian nuclear market will likely wield significant influence in the region for a considerable period of time. Therefore, although the prospect for a nuclear market in Southeast Asia is still hazy, the relative competitiveness of these potential nuclear vendors in the region deserves attention.