EXCHANGE RATE VOLATILITY AND MANUFACTURING OUTPUT IN ECOWAS ECONOMIES

Abstract

This study examined the impact of exchange rate volatility on manufacturing output in the ECOWAS, using time series data spanning from 1970 to 2019. The study employed panel data analysis to examine the relationship between exchange rate volatility and manufacturing output among all the ECOWAS countries. GARCH was used to establish the existence of volatility; Dumitrescu & Hurlin Granger non-causality test for causality direction between manufacturing and exchange rate, while Panel fixed, and random effect model was used to assess the magnitude of the effects of exchange rate volatility on manufacturing output in ECOWAS. The result of the volatility test from GARCH confirmed the presence of volatility in Exchange rates across all the countries in ECOWAS. Furthermore, the random effect model results showed that exchange rate volatility has a positive and significant impact on manufacturing output in ECOWAS. Based on the findings of this study, it is therefore recommended that exchange rate policies such as floating exchange rates and exchange rate sterilized intervention that will pave the way for competitiveness should be formulated by monetary authorities in ECOWAS.