Abstract

Exchange Rate Parities and Taylor Rule Deviations

Highlights

  • Two well-known puzzles in international finance arise as a result of the apparent failure of many empirical models to find support for either the PPP (Purchasing Power Parity) or the UIP (Uncovered Interest Rate Parity) relations

  • We estimate a Threshold vector error correction model (VECM) (TVECM), where the threshold variable is given by deviations from the Taylor rule since these are an important indicator of central bank credibility and could affect the adjustment towards the long-run equilibrium

  • The aim of this paper is to provide new evidence on the empirical validity of PPP and UIP by taking into account possible nonlinearities and investigating the role of Taylor rule deviations under alternative monetary policy frameworks

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Summary

Introduction

Two well-known puzzles in international finance arise as a result of the apparent failure of many empirical models to find support for either the PPP (Purchasing Power Parity) or the UIP (Uncovered Interest Rate Parity) relations. We are grateful to two anonymous referees for their helpful comments and suggestions

B Guglielmo Maria Caporale
Literature review
The linear Vector Error Correction Model
The Threshold Vector Error Correction Model
Tests for threshold-type nonlinearity
Data description
Unit root and cointegration tests
The linear model
Taylor rule deviations
Nonlinearity tests
Findings
Conclusions

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