Exchange rate asymmetry and its impact on bilateral trade: Evidence from BCIM-EC countries using N-ARDL approach

Abstract

The novelty of this study is to examine the asymmetric effect of the exchange rate on bilateral export and import between Bangladesh and its three trading partners in the Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar Economic Corridor using nonlinear ARDL models from 1973 to 2022. After controlling income and structural breaks, the empirical findings confirm the asymmetric effects of exchange rates on the short-run and long-run export and import demand functions of Bangladesh. Furthermore, the impacts of the appreciation and depreciation of the Bangladeshi currency are heterogeneous for these three trading partners. For instance, the depreciation of the Bangladeshi currency increases exports to China and India while it decreases exports to Myanmar in the short run. However, the depreciation increases exports to India and Myanmar, and the appreciation also increases exports to China and India in the long-run. On the contrary, depreciation increases imports from China and Myanmar in the short-run, while it decreases imports from Myanmar in the long run. Only appreciation has significant negative effects on China and India. As a robustness measure, we exclude the COVID-19 period. However, it does not substantially change our main findings.