EXCESS SMOOTHNESS OF CONSUMPTION IN JAPAN

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to test whether excess smoothness of consumption, which is not consistent with the permanent income hypothesis (PIH), is observed in Japan. Two simple testing procedures are employed and several measures of Japanese aggregate consumption are used in the analysis. Further, for purposes of comparison, US aggregate data and Japanese income quintile group data are also used. The findings of the paper are the following: all estimates of the consumption variability ratio indicate an excess smoothness of consumption in Japan; the results of tests of PIH differ depending on the testing procedures and the measures of consumption used, in contrast to the results for the US; and the consumption variability ratio is likely to be smaller in lower income groups. This suggests the possible existence of significant liquidity constraints or transactions costs in Japan.