Excess pneumonia and influenza hospitalizations associated with influenza epidemics in Portugal from season 1998/1999 to 2014/2015.

Emanuel Rodrigues,Susana Silva,Ausenda Machado,Baltazar Nunes

doi:10.1111/irv.12501

Abstract

BackgroundThe aim of this study was to estimate excess pneumonia and influenza (P&I) hospitalizations during influenza epidemics and measure their correlation with influenza vaccine coverage in the 65 and more years old, according to the type/subtype of influenza virus.MethodsThe study period comprised week 40/1998‐40/2015. Age‐specific weekly P&I hospitalizations (ICD‐9: 480‐487) as main diagnosis were extracted from the National Hospital Discharge database. Age‐specific baseline hospitalization rates were estimated by autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model without time periods with excess hospitalizations. Excess hospitalizations were calculated by subtracting expected hospitalization rates from the observed during influenza epidemic periods. Correlation between excess P&I hospitalizations and influenza vaccine coverage in the elderly was measured with Pearson correlation coefficient.ResultsThe average excess P&I hospitalizations/season was 19.4/105 (range 0‐46.1/105), and higher excess was observed in young children with <2 years (79.8/105) and ≥65 years (68.3/105). In epidemics with A(H3) dominant, the highest excess hospitalizations were observed among 65 and over. Seasons which influenza B or A(H1)pdm09 dominance the highest excess was observed in children with <2 years. High negative correlation was estimated between excess hospitalizations associated with A(H3) circulation and vaccine coverage in the elderly (r = −.653; 95% CI: −0.950 to −0.137).ConclusionOver 80% of the influenza epidemics were associated with excess hospitalizations. However, excess P&I hospitalizations pattern differed from age group and circulating virus. This ecologic approach also identified a reduction in excess P&I associated with A(H3) circulation with increasing vaccine coverage in the elderly.

Highlights

Influenza viruses circulate every year, causing epidemics that are usually benign and mild for the human population but that can complicate into other diseases, like pneumonia
Considering the Portuguese mainland context, this study aims to (i) estimate the excess number of pneumonia and influenza (P&I) hospitalizations during influenza epidemics from seasons 1998-1999 to 2014-2015 and (ii) to measure their correlation with influenza vaccine coverage in the elderly (65 and more years old), according to the type/subtype of influenza virus predominant in each season
The present study is the first Portuguese comprehensive analysis aimed at estimating the excess of pneumonia and influenza hospitalizations associated with influenza epidemics, using a wide period of analysis that encompasses 17 influenza seasons

Summary

Introduction

Influenza viruses circulate every year, causing epidemics that are usually benign and mild for the human population but that can complicate into other diseases, like pneumonia. The aim of this study was to estimate excess pneumonia and influenza (P&I) hospitalizations during influenza epidemics and measure their correlation with influenza vaccine coverage in the 65 and more years old, according to the type/subtype of influenza virus. Age-specific baseline hospitalization rates were estimated by autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model without time periods with excess hospitalizations. High negative correlation was estimated between excess hospitalizations associated with A(H3) circulation and vaccine coverage in the elderly (r = −.653; 95% CI: −0.950 to −0.137). Excess P&I hospitalizations pattern differed from age group and circulating virus. This ecologic approach identified a reduction in excess P&I associated with A(H3) circulation with increasing vaccine coverage in the elderly

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