Excess mortality in residents of aged care facilities during COVID-19 in Australia, 2019-22.

Abstract

To date, the excess mortality experienced by residential aged care facility (RACF) residents related to COVID-19 has not been estimated in Australia. This study examined (i) the historical mortality trends (2008-09 to 2021-22) and (ii) the excess mortality (2019-20 to 2021-22) of Australian RACF residents. A retrospective population-based study was conducted using the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare's GEN website data (publicly available aged care services information). Non-Aboriginal, older (≥65 years old) RACF residents between 2008-09 and 2021-22 were evaluated. The observed mortality rate was estimated from RACF exits compared with the RACF cohort yearly. Direct standardization was employed to estimate age-standardized mortality rates and 95% CIs. Excess mortality and 95% prediction intervals (PIs) for 2019-20 to 2021-22 were estimated using four negative binomial (NB) and NB generalized additive models and compared. The age-standardized mortality rate in 2018-19 was 23 061/100 000 residents (95% CI, 22 711-23 412). This rate remained similar in 2019-20 (23 023/100 000; 95% CI, 22 674-23 372), decreased in 2020-21 (22 559/100 000; 95% CI, 22 210-22 909) and increased in 2021-22 (24 885/100 000; 95% CI, 24 543-25 227). The mortality rate increase between 2020-21 and 2021-22 was observed in all age and sex groups. All models yielded excess mortality in 2021-22. Using the best-performing model (NB), the excess mortality for 2019-20 was -160 (95% PI, -418 to 98), -958 (95% PI, -1279 to -637) for 2020-21 and 4896 (95% PI, 4503-5288) for 2021-22. In 2021-22, RACF residents, who represented <1% of the population, experienced 21% of the Australian national excess mortality (4896/22886). As Australia adjusts to COVID-19, RACF residents remain a population vulnerable to COVID-19.