Excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic in Algeria: The case of Oran Province

Abstract

This study aimed to estimate excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic in Oran between March 2020 and December 2022. Monthly all-cause data used to estimate excess mortality were modeled against the pre-pandemic period (January 2011-February 2020). Excess mortality between March 2020 and December 2022 was estimated using a quasi-Poisson regression. Analyses were stratified by age group. From March 2020 to December 2022, there was a 30% excess mortality rate, corresponding to an average of 112 monthly excess deaths. Observed numbers of deaths were higher than expected for the age groups 20–39, 40–59, 60–79, and 80 and above. The age group 0–19 did not show excess mortality. The COVID-19 pandemic has been associated with a significant increase in all-cause mortality in Oran. Our results highlight the importance of monitoring all-cause excess mortality as an indicator of the disease burden in situations such as the current pandemic.