Excess mortality due to COVID-19 in Germany

Abstract

ObjectivesThe first wave of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in Germany lasted from week 10 to 23 in 2020. The aim is to provide estimates of excess mortality in Germany during this time. MethodsWe analyzed age-specific numbers of deaths per week from 2016 to week 26 in 2020. We used weekly mean numbers of deaths of 2016–2019 to estimate expected weekly numbers for 2020. We estimated standardized mortality ratios (SMR) and 95% confidence intervals. ResultsDuring the first wave observed numbers of deaths were higher than expected for age groups 60–69, 80–89, and 90+. The age group 70–79 years did not show excess mortality. The net excess number of deaths for weeks 10–23 was +8,071. The overall SMR was 1•03 (95%CI 1•03–1•04). The largest increase occurred among people aged 80–89 and 90+ (SMR=1•08 and SMR=1•09). A sensitivity analysis that accounts for demographic changes revealed an overall SMR of 0•98 (95%CI 0•98–0•99) and a deficit of 4,926 deaths for week 10–23, 2020. ConclusionsThe excess mortality existed for two months. The favorable course of the first wave may be explained by a younger age at infection at the beginning of the pandemic, lower contact rates, and a more efficient pandemic management.