Example of a debris-flow risk analysis from Vancouver Island, British Columbia, Canada

Abstract

In July 2005, a debris flow and a water flood occurred on two adjacent gullies in the White River area, on northern Vancouver Island in British Columbia, Canada. The 16,000 m3 debris flow buried approximately 7.5 ha of second-growth trees, buried approximately 500 m of a forestry road, and reached two fish-bearing streams. The water flood eroded approximately 240 m of the same forestry road and plugged four culverts before overtopping and inundating the road. To better plan for future events, risk analyses of debris flows, debris floods, and water floods were carried out for the two gullies involved, plus a third adjacent gully. The elements at risk that were analyzed included, in order of priority: users of the forestry road, the fish-bearing streams, the forestry road itself, and a timber bridge. Using a series of qualitative, but defined, relative-risk matrices, the following components of specific risk were estimated for each of the three types of events on each of the three gullies for each of the four elements at risk: probability of occurrence, probability that the event will reach or otherwise affect the site of the element at risk, the probability that the element at risk will be at the site when the event occurs, and the probability of loss or damage resulting from the element being at the site when the event occurs.