Examining Yam Production in Response to Climate Change in Nigeria: A Co-Integration Model Approach

Cynthia W Angba,Allan J Butler,Richard N Baines

doi:10.3390/socsci9040042

Cynthia W Angba, Allan J Butler + Show 1 more

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https://doi.org/10.3390/socsci9040042

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Abstract

This study addressed yam production in response to climate change in Cross River State using a co-integration model approach. The specific objectives of this paper are to analyze the trend in yam production, annual precipitation, and annual temperature, and to analyze the impact of climate variables on yam production. Time-series data from 1996 to 2017 was used. Based on the analysis, which constituted a linear trend analysis, co-integration test, and error correction model, the study came up with robust findings. The linear trend analysis for yam production revealed a steady increase in output between the years 2005 and 2016. The result of the rainfall trend analysis showed the presence of rainfall variability and irregularity. The trend line for temperature showed an overall downward trend for the period under study. However, the Error Correction Model result showed that temperature was statistically significant and negatively impacted yam production. The study recommends that policymakers should take appropriate steps to encourage the development of pest- and disease-tolerant yam varieties because an increase in temperature leads to the proliferation of insects, pests, and diseases.

Highlights

Agriculture is one of the sectors that are climate-sensitive in Nigeria
This study seeks to address the impact of climate change on yam production, which is a staple food in Cross River State, Nigeria
Trend Analysis of Yam Output and Climate Variables and Bečvářová (2015) who worked on the analysis of yam production in Nigeria

Summary

Introduction

Agriculture is one of the sectors that are climate-sensitive in Nigeria. Cultivation is mainly dependent on rainfall, and any change in climate will impact production directly and affect other socio-economic activities in the country (Egbe et al 2014; Elijah Samuel and Samuel 2018). Though the threat of a changing climate is universal, agricultural production activities are usually more susceptible than other sectors (Mbanasor et al 2015). There have been studies on effects of climate change on agriculture in Nigeria using secondary time series data at state and national level (Agwu et al 2012; Enete 2014; Akinbobola et al 2015; Nwaobiala and Nottidge 2015; Mbanasor et al 2015; Elijah Samuel and Samuel 2018).

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