Examining transport futures with scenario analysis and MCA

Abstract

Climate change is a global problem and across the world the transport sector is finding it difficult to break projected increases in carbon dioxide (CO 2) emissions; there are very few contexts where deep reductions in transport CO 2 emissions are being made. A number of research studies are now examining the potential for future lower CO 2 emissions in the transport sector. This paper develops this work to consider some of the wider sustainability impacts (economic, social and local environmental) as well as the lower CO 2 transport impacts of different policy trajectories. Hence the central argument made is for an integrated approach to transport policy making over the longer term – incorporating scenario analysis and multi-criteria assessment (MCA) – to help assess likely progress against a range of objectives. The analysis is based on work carried out in Oxfordshire, UK. Different packages of measures are selected and two scenarios developed which satisfy lower CO 2 aspirations, one of which also provides wider positive sustainability impacts. A simulation model has been produced to help explore the strategic policy choices and tensions evident for decision-makers involved in local transport planning. The paper argues for a ‘strategic conversation’ ( Van der Heijden, 1996) at the sub-regional and city level, based upon future scenario analysis and MCA, discussing the priorities for intervention. Such an approach will help us examine the scale of change and trade-offs required in moving towards sustainable transport futures.