Examining the relationship between meteorological disaster economic impact and regional economic development in China

Abstract

Economic impact of disaster is closely related to regional economic development, and the relationship between the two has been summarized as Kuznets or inverted-U curve. In this curve, direct and indirect economic loss (DEL, IEL) are the two key indicators to quantify the economic impact of disasters. However, due to the lack of input-output analysis, existing studies often ignore the importance of IEL. Therefore, based on the regional DEL of meteorological disasters in China from 2003 to 2019, this study quantitatively assesses the IEL due to the ripple effects of inter-regional industrial linkages by constructing the multi-regional input-output (MRIO) model. Study found that: (1) Economic impact of disasters is more severe in less developed inland areas and half as severe in more developed coastal areas. (2) Agriculture in less developed inland areas is more vulnerable and its DEL is higher than IEL, i.e., agricultural IEL in northwest is 41.6 % of DEL; while the secondary industry in more developed coastal areas has a more severe IEL. (3) Economic impact of disasters and economic development in China conform to the inverted-U curve, and has exceeded the peak of the curve and began to decline, economic impact has decreased by 77.8 % during study period with economic level increased by 6.6 times. In conclusion, China's economic development is conducive to reducing disaster economic impact, but regional differences need to be made clear in the formulation of policies, reducing the indirect impact should be more of a regional disaster reduction priority in more developed areas.