Examining the Relationship between Economic Reform and Political Freedom: Vision 2030 and Democratic Transition in Saudi Arabia

Abstract

Saudi Vision 2030 aims to engender structural economic change in Saudi Arabia and promises greater transparency, accountability, citizen engagement, and more open economic and social spaces. If successful in the long term, it could reconfigure the relationship between state and citizenry and reshape the entire political system, or lead to democratic transition. This paper examines the impact of Vision 2030 on democratisation in the kingdom. Drawing on the concepts of democratic transition, the rentier state, and the authoritarian bargain as a theoretical framework, the paper adopts a descriptive analytical approach to understand the relationship between economic reform and democratisation. It concludes that the Saudi regime tactically implements economic reforms for several purposes: to contain internal and external changes, to monopolise power, and to endow the regime with new legitimacy at home and abroad. Three indicators support this conclusion: the reconstitution of elites and the centralisation of power, the continued suppression of the opposition, and the regime’s interest in ensuring the stability and perpetuation of authoritarianism.