Examining the quantile cross-coherence between fossil energy and clean energy: Is the dependence structure changing with the COVID-19 outbreak?

Abstract

The advent of COVID-19 has markedly affected financial and energy markets. Clean energy positions itself as a feasible substitute for fossil fuels, and the crisis has altered the interdependence of these two counterpart markets. This study uses quantile cross-spectral analysis to investigate the dependence structure features of the fossil and clean energy markets, pre- and post-COVID-19 outbreak, under various market conditions and across different investment horizons. Empirical results suggest an anomalous intensification or inversion in the interaction between fossil and clean energy under extreme market conditions post-COVID-19 outbreak, manifesting either an extraordinarily high or low dependency. Additionally, the asset dependence structure exhibits increased heterogeneity across investment horizons after the COVID-19 outbreak, with short-term structures demonstrating higher volatility, while medium- and long-term structures show similarity. Finally, by generating a dynamic energy portfolio, this paper measures the investment allocation weights of each asset before and after the emergence of COVID-19. Findings indicate an increased need for investment in natural gas, crude oil, and clean energy post-COVID-19 outbreak, suggesting a reduction in coal investment. The analyses aim to assist energy investors in enhancing their economic decision-making processes and refining their portfolio management strategies.