Examining the operational use of avalanche problems with decision trees and model-generated weather and snowpack variables

Simon Horton,Pascal Haegeli,Moses Towell

doi:10.5194/nhess-20-3551-2020

Simon Horton, Pascal Haegeli + Show 1 more

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-3551-2020

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Abstract

Abstract. Avalanche problems are used in avalanche forecasting to describe snowpack, weather, and terrain factors that require distinct risk management techniques. Although they have become an effective tool for assessing and communicating avalanche hazard, their definitions leave room for interpretation and inconsistencies. This study uses conditional inference trees to explore the application of avalanche problems over eight winters in Glacier National Park, Canada. The influences of weather and snowpack variables on each avalanche problem type were explored by analysing a continuous set of weather and snowpack variables produced with a numerical weather prediction model and a physical snow cover model. The decision trees suggest forecasters' assessments are based on not only a physical analysis of weather and snowpack conditions but also contextual information about the time of season, the location, and interactions with other avalanche problems. The decision trees showed clearer patterns when new avalanche problems were added to hazard assessments compared to when problems were removed. Despite discrepancies between modelled variables and field observations, the model-generated variables produced intuitive explanations for conditions influencing most avalanche problem types. For example, snowfall in the past 72 h was the most significant variable for storm slab avalanche problems, skier penetration depth was the most significant variable for dry loose avalanche problems, and slab density was the most significant variable for persistent-slab avalanche problems. The explanations for wind slab and cornice avalanche problems were less intuitive, suggesting potential inconsistencies in their application as well as shortcomings of the model-generated data. The decision trees illustrate how forecasters apply avalanche problems and can inform discussions about improved operational practices and the development of data-driven decision aids.

Highlights

Avalanche problems have become a fundamental tool for assessing and communicating avalanche hazard
Avalanche problems are defined as a “set of factors that describe the avalanche hazard”, where each problem describes a set of snowpack, weather, and terrain factors that require distinct risk management techniques (Statham et al, 2018a)
When adding contextual variables, the percentage of correct classifications by the storm slab decision tree increased from 78 % to 88 %, the hit rate increased from 76 % to 84 %, and the false alarm rate dropped from 35 % to 13 %

Summary

Introduction

Avalanche problems have become a fundamental tool for assessing and communicating avalanche hazard. Avalanche problems are defined as a “set of factors that describe the avalanche hazard”, where each problem describes a set of snowpack, weather, and terrain factors that require distinct risk management techniques (Statham et al, 2018a). Different sets of problems are used in North America and Europe (European Avalanche Warning Services, 2017; Statham et al, 2018a), the concept has been widely adopted into professional avalanche risk management and backcountry recreation. In North America, avalanche problems are applied using a standardized workflow known as the conceptual model of avalanche hazard (Statham et al, 2018a).

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