Abstract
Recent work on campaigns of civil resistance posits a causal link between nonviolence and campaign success mediated by levels of popular participation. Formal causal mediation analysis reveals a robust null effect along this causal pathway. A separate, instrumental variables analysis of the unconditional average effect of participation on nonviolent resistance movements’ likelihood of victory casts further doubt on the notion that larger campaigns strictly outperform smaller ones. However, where resistance is led by a pre-existing socio-economic or political organization – such as a trade union, a religious community, or a political party or front – greater popular participation does appear to be beneficial.
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