Examining the impacts of socio-economic factors, urban form and transportation development on CO2 emissions from transportation in China: A panel data analysis of China's provinces

Abstract

This paper presents an analysis of the spatial-temporal evolution of and regional differences in CO2 emissions from transportation in China during the period of 2000–2012 based on a transportation carbon-emission model. A two-way fixed effect model was constructed to examine socio-economic impacts and impacts of urban form and transportation development on CO2 emissions from transportation in China. The results indicated that the total and per capita CO2 emissions from transportation were growing at an annual rate of 9.29% and 8.69%, respectively, and that regional differences were inconsistent during this period. Most socio-economic, urban form and transportation development factors had a significant positive effect on per capita CO2 emissions from transportation. Socio-economic development and increased income were the primary driving factors for the growth of per capita CO2 emissions from transportation. Urban population density, the size of built-up areas and urban road density should be controlled by planning to eliminate increased per capita CO2 emissions from transportation. Urban public transportation had a significant negative effect on per capita CO2 emissions from transportation, while the effect of car ownership was not significant, which indicated that providing well-developed urban public transportation and advocating behavior changes regarding travel were important ways to reduce per capita CO2 emissions from transportation. The findings of this study have important implications for reducing the growth of CO2 emissions from transportation in China and constructing low-carbon and sustainable city space environments.