Examining the impact of exposure, built environment and socio-demographics on pedestrian safety: A case study of Greater London

Abstract

Walking as a mode of travel alleviates congestion, pollution and concerns over physical fitness. However, safety concerns might be a barrier for some people to walking more often, so finding ways to improve pedestrian safety is important. This paper conducts a ward-level study of Greater London such that factors which are associated with pedestrian safety can be identified and interventions to improve safety can be more appropriately targeted. A wide range of factors relating to exposure, land use, built and natural environment, and socio-demographics, including markers of deprivation were considered in our analysis. We employed a multilevel random parameters negative binomial regression model with a hierarchical structure which encompassed the boroughs and wards of Greater London allowing dependency in the data and unobserved heterogeneity to be addressed more fully. The results show that BAME population, number of schools, job density and alcohol expenditure are associated with an increase in pedestrian crashes as are crime rate and children in child benefit households, which are both markers of deprivation. Also, the average number of cars per household, the proportion of green space and the percentage of adults who commute by walking have a decreasing effect on pedestrian crash frequency. This study identifies important determinates of ward-level pedestrian safety and estimates the magnitude of their association with pedestrian safety and in doing so reveals important between borough (local authority) differences in the Greater London area in terms of pedestrian safety which were not previously known or well-understood.