Examining the efficacy of constancy and frequency as political strategies for assisted suicide legalization: Does the introduction of many bills over time or multiple bills at once increase the likelihood of assisted suicide bills passing in U.S. state legislatures?

Abstract

Attempts to legalize assisted suicide has historically presented a unique set of political and procedural challenges in state legislatures, the result of which has been the overwhelming defeat of nearly 98% such attempts in the last 25 years. Only in recent years is this trend beginning to change. Vermont was the first state to adopt legislation in 2013, followed by California, and Washington DC in 2015. In 2018, Hawaii was added to the list and most recently, New Jersey, and Maine in 2019. Other trends have become evident as well. Whereas between 1995 and 2013 there was a median of nine bills introduced by six states in a given biennium, this has increased to 31 bills in 24 states between 2015 and 2019, And while until 2013, only two or three states at most would have more than a single bill in play, the median has now doubled to five states and Washington DC since 2015. This paper examines whether or not these recent trends are in fact, political strategies that could explain and potentially predict success in future sessions. We examine the efficacy of constancy (the perseverance of introducing bills over multiple sessions) and frequency (introducing multiple bills in the same session) using both the six successful attempts as well as 264 failed attempts since 1994. Comparing the common attributes of successful legalization as well as failures, perseverance cannot be ruled out as a beneficial variable, but can only be vindicated with more data in the future. There was no evidence across all the data to suggest that multiple bills contributed to success. The data also shows that ideological liberalism is currently a necessary but not sufficient condition to pass assisted suicide bills, although it is expected to become more significant as the issue settles down party lines. Increases in the number of bills, the number states with bills, and perhaps the number of bills introduced in a given state appears more as a response to environmental stimuli that makes bills appear more viable: namely previous state victories and shifts in public opinion.