Abstract

In order to achieve the carbon emission reduction targets in Xinjiang, it has become a necessary condition to study the carbon emission of households in small and medium-sized cities in Xinjiang. This paper studies the direct carbon emissions of households (DCEH) in the Ebinur Lake Basin, and based on the extended STIRPAT model, using the 1987–2017 annual time series data of the Ebinur Lake Basin in Xinjiang to analyze the driving factors. The results indicate that DCEH in the Ebinur Lake Basin during the 31 years from 1987 to 2017 has generally increased and the energy structure of DCEH has undergone tremendous changes. The proportion of coal continues to decline, while the proportion of natural gas, gasoline and diesel is growing rapidly. The main positive driving factors affecting its carbon emissions are urbanization, vehicle ownership and GDP per capita, while the secondary driving factor is residents’ year-end savings. Population, carbon intensity and energy consumption structure have negative effects on carbon emissions, of which energy consumption structure is the main factor. In addition, there is an environmental Kuznets curve between DCEH and economic development, but it has not yet reached the inflection point.

Highlights

  • Since the industrial revolution, with the rapid development of the economic level of various countries, the world’s consumption of fossil fuels has continued to increase, resulting in the continuous increase in carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas emissions.The 36th meeting of IPCC in 2013 reviewed and accepted the full report “Climate Change2013

  • Kenny and Gray [7] used a model designed for Ireland to calculate the carbon dioxide emissions of Irish households and the results show that the higher the occupancy rate, the more the energy efficiency of households

  • The results show that household consumption level is the main factor, followed by carbon emission intensity and economic structure

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Summary

Introduction

With the rapid development of the economic level of various countries, the world’s consumption of fossil fuels has continued to increase, resulting in the continuous increase in carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas emissions. Came to an interesting conclusion that, in China, households with a large proportion of middle-aged and elderly people are beneficial to reducing household energy consumption The conclusions of these studies are very meaningful and valuable. The results show that household consumption level is the main factor, followed by carbon emission intensity and economic structure. The direct carbon emissions of households in the Ebinur Lake Basin can be calculated to understand its dynamic development trend and provide a benchmark for regional carbon neutral. The key direction of carbon emission reduction in the Ebinur Lake Basin can be identified by analyzing the impact of different factors in different periods. Studying the direct household carbon emissions and driving factors in this area has practical operability and policy implementation

The Calculation Method of DCEH
STIRPAT Model
Data Sources
Uncertainty and Monte Carlo Simulation
Change in the Total Amount of DCEH
Analysis of Driving Factor
Multicollinearity Analysis
Principal Component Analysis
Regression Analysis
Conclusions
Policy Recommendations
Full Text
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