Examining the determinants of energy-related carbon emissions in Central Asia: country-level LMDI and EKC analysis during different phases

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Central Asia is a major emerging energy player but is also affected by global climate change. To both maintain its economic growth and cope with climate change, Central Asia is in urgent need of environmental and sustainable energy strategies, as well as effective carbon emissions mitigation. To this end, we investigated the characteristics of country-level total carbon emissions in Central Asia (i.e., Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan). Then, the logarithmic mean Divisia index method was applied to identify and quantify the driving forces behind the changes in carbon emissions. In addition, country-level long-run relationships between economic growth and carbon emissions were tested by means of the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis. The results are as follows. (1) There were pronounced differences in per capita gross domestic product, energy intensity, and carbon emissions structures across this region, mainly owing to the oil and gas endowment and economic development stage. (2) Impacts and influences of various drivers of carbon emissions varied across countries over the different stages. (3) During the economic recession period, carbon emissions decreases were largely driven by the decreasing economic growth effect associated with political instability. (4) During the economic transition periods, economic growth effect played a dominant positive role in accelerating carbon emissions in the five countries, followed by the population scale effect. Energy intensity effect was the most important factor in curbing carbon emissions in the five countries. Emissions increases during these periods were partly or largely compensated by the improving energy intensity in the different countries. Carbon intensity effect mostly had a negative but relatively minor effect on carbon emissions. (5) There was only an inverted U-shaped curve existing in the lower-middle-income country (Uzbekistan). Considering these differences and disparities in emissions characteristics and determinants can provide important insights for the energy sustainability and carbon mitigation in Central Asia.