Examining the confluence of climate change and conflicts on agricultural and livestock exports in Somalia

Abstract

Climate-induced extreme weather events and conflicts are jointly contributing to disruptions in agricultural supply chains and destabilizing global food trade. Since the literature has identified that variations in climatic conditions hamper farming and animal raising, it is necessary to explore the consequences of climate change on crop and livestock exports in order to implement policies that mitigate the exposure and enhance exports. In this context, this study aims to examine the confluence of climate change and conflicts—internal and external—on agricultural and livestock exports in Somalia during 1985–2017. The evidence from the cointegration analysis verified the presence of a consistent long-run cointegration between the variables. The empirical results of the ARDL approach indicate that average rainfall enhances agricultural and livestock exports in Somalia in the short-run and long-run, while mean temperature particularly hampers agricultural exports in the long-run. Despite livestock production was found to be statistically insignificant, crop production positively contributes to agricultural exports. In addition, increases in rural population enhance both export categories in the short-run and long-run. A striking finding from the study indicates that internal and external conflicts decrease crop and animal exports in the long-run, although the coefficients of external conflicts were statistically insignificant. The long-run findings were validated using the FMOLS cointegration approach. Moreover, the causality findings demonstrate a unidirectional causality from agricultural exports to precipitation, temperature fluctuations, and internal conflicts. Furthermore, the study shows that agricultural labor Granger causes farm and livestock exports. To this end, this study recommends policymakers promote product diversification, foster sustainable land management practices, facilitate market access, and invest in resilient farming systems.