Examining the applicability of market forecasting models to new pharmaceutical products.

Abstract

Developing new products is a complex and risky business, particularly in the pharmaceutical industry. In recent years, several pretest and test market models have been proposed to evaluate the performance of a new product. Although these models have been tested and validated with a wide variety of frequently purchased products, certain unique characteristics of the market for pharmaceutical products render the models subject to modification. This study examines and evaluates the applicability of three types of market forecasting models (Awareness forecasting models, Pre-test market models, and Test market models) in predicting the market potential of new pharmaceutical products.