Examining rural Sahelian out-migration in the context of climate change: An analysis of the linkages between rainfall and out-migration in two Malian villages from 1981 to 2009

Abstract

Abstract Subsistence farmers in Sahelian Africa are highly vulnerable to the rainfall effects associated with climate change. Permanent or temporary out-migration can provide an individual or family the opportunity to mitigate against these effects. One major challenge to quantifying the impact of climate change on out-migration is lack of appropriate spatial and temporal data. Out-migration data must be adequately detailed to include both long- and short-term departures. The climate data must provide fine scale, community-specific detail. To examine the climate variability as a factor of out-migration we examine individual- and community-level responses using highly detailed, full migration histories of 3150 individuals with fine-scale rainfall data. Using this multi-method approach we examine the probability of out-migration as well as out-migration duration and destination as they relate to locally measured rainfall. The results suggest that out-migration behavior does not generally change because of failures or variation in the rainy season.