Examining Latino Turnout in 1996: A Three-State, Validated Survey Approach

Abstract

As Latino populations in the United States increase, accurately characterizing their turnout is central to understanding how the post-New Deal party system will evolve. Yet we presently have little data on either their turnout or the dynamic by which such participation occurs. We estimate Latino voting rates in the 1996 presidential election by validating selfreported turnout from a post-election survey of Latinos in California, Florida, and Texas. We then use these estimates as dependent variables for multivariate models of Latino turnout. The data show that the validated Latino turnout was much lower than the aggregate turnout for the 1996 election. In addition, many of the factors that have explained aggregate voting were also significantly correlated with Latino turnout. These correlations, however, were stronger for self-reported than for validated Latino voting. Perhaps the most distinctive feature of Latino voting in 1996 was the significant and positive effect of contacting by a Latino group, which suggests that mobilization efforts may be critical to eradicating the turnout gap and incorporating Latinos into the existing party system. ith each national election during the past twenty years has come the prediction that Latino turnout would be massive and decisive. As of 1996, despite more voters and a rapidly growing population, the promise of an overwhelming Latino turnout had not been realized. There were, however, several reasons to expect that the 1996 election would witness the long-awaited dramatic increase in Hispanic voting. First, Latino leaders and officeholders spurred the Democrats to develop a major Latino outreach effort (Subervi-Velez and Cunningham 1999). Republican Latinos, although less influential than their Democratic counterparts, promoted a similar initiative (de la Garza and DeSipio 1997). Second, Latino leaders linked the anti-immigrant elements of the 1996 Welfare Reform Act to California's Proposition 187 (which was passed in 1994 and sought to deny social services to the children of illegal aliens) in hopes of mobilizing Latino voters nationwide. Third, in response to provisions in the new welfare reform, Latino immigrants began naturalizing at a record pace, greatly increasing the potential numbers of Latino voters (Freeman et al. 1998). Finally, motor-voter provisions and Latino registration drives helped raise the number of Latino registered voters to 6.6 million, almost 1.5 million more than 1992 (Southwest Voter Registration and Education Project 1997). The 1996 election is thus exceptionally interesting to students of Latino voting. In addition to a growing population, increased registration, and a favorable political context for Latino participation, concerted efforts to mobilize Latinos may have increased turnout. Here we examine the influence of mobilization and other political and demographic variables on turnout in 1996. Our data come from a three-state, post-election survey of Latinos. We find that validated Latino turnout was much lower than esti-