Examining COVID-19-triggered changes in spatial connectivity patterns in the European air transport network up to June 2021

Abstract

The integrity of international supply chain operations heavily relies on air transport services to facilitate the movement of goods and enable human interactions between its stakeholders. With the outbreak of COVID-19 in Europe around March 2020, air transport networks have been subject to profound alterations. Although the link between variations in air transport service levels and changes in user costs for network-wide travel has been analysed extensively, few studies have examined the extent to which severe network shrinkage events lead to a reduction in network connectivity, which is therefore difficult to predict. This paper investigates how the COVID-19 pandemic has structurally altered the European air transport network in 2020/21 and how these changes have deteriorated users' ease when utilising network-wide air transport services. To do this, the paper estimates the change in average quickest path length at the airport level during different stages of this period. Results indicate there is strong heterogeneity in airports' susceptibility to pandemic-induced network changes, with both regional variations and variations in the airline type serving individual airports. Furthermore, topological features of individual airports are found to determine airport susceptibility. The findings are discussed in terms of their implications for locational decisions in supply chain designs.