Examination of the repeatability of two Ms6.4 Menyuan earthquakes in Qilian-Haiyuan fault zone (NE Tibetan Plateau) based on source parameters

Abstract

Repeating earthquakes are key evidence for understanding earthquake recurrence and help improve long-term seismic risk assessment. In 1986 and 2016, two Ms6.4 earthquakes occurred in Menyuan region, near the middle segment of Qilian-Haiyuan fault zone, NE Tibetan Plateau. Long period waveforms of the two events at teleseismic stations show high degree of similarity, however, previous solutions on earthquake location and focal mechanism show remarkable discrepancies, especially for the 1986 event, as well the ruptured faults also remain ambiguous. In this study, we determined the source parameters of these two earthquakes, including the relative location, focal depth, focal mechanism, source duration and rupture directivity. The results show that two earthquakes are thrust events in shallow crust and are located within 15 km, and the 2016 earthquake ruptured down-dip for ~6 km along the southwest dipping plane. Combing the source parameters, geological data and deep seismic-reflection profiles, we infer that these two earthquakes occurred on the same secondary fault of Lenglong Ling fault (the middle segment of Qilian-Haiyuan fault), but they ruptured on different sections of the fault. Although the two events are probably not repeating earthquakes of Qilian-Haiyuan fault zone, the seismic risk of ~M6 thrust earthquake on these secondary faults and even larger strike-slip earthquake on Lenglong Ling fault are not negligible based on the source parameters and ten-year GPS observations.