Abstract
In India, a significant reduction of wheat yield would cause a widespread impact on food security for 1.35 billion people. The two highest wheat producing states, Punjab and Haryana in northern India, experienced a prolonged period of anomalously low wheat yield during 2002–2010. The extent of climate variability and change in influencing this prolonged reduction in wheat yield was examined. Daily air temperature (Tmax and Tave) was used to calculate the number of days above optimum temperature and growing degree days (GDD) anomaly. Two drought indices, the standard precipitation and evapotranspiration index and the radiation-based precipitation index, were used to describe the drought conditions. Groundwater variability was assessed via satellite-based approximation. The analysis results indicate that the wheat yield loss corresponds to the increase in the number of days with a temperature above 35 °C during the maturity stage (March). Reduction in monsoon rainfall led to a depletion of groundwater and reduced surface water for irrigation in the wheat growing season (November–March). Higher temperatures, coupled with water shortage and irregular irrigation, also appear to impact the yield reduction. In hindsight, improving the agronomic practices to minimize crop water usage could be an adaptation strategy to maintain the desired wheat yield in the face of climate-induced drought and precipitation anomaly.
Highlights
India ranks third in wheat production, after the European Union (EU) and China, India’s main wheat production lies in the northwest of the Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP) [1,2]
Since little to no drastic change in management practices or cultivation techniques could last for this long period, environmental factors such as climate variability could play a role in producing such a negative impact on wheat yield
The climatological and hydrological factors associated with the pronounced wheat yield reduction during 2002–2010 over northwest India were examined in this study
Summary
India ranks third in wheat production, after the European Union (EU) and China, India’s main wheat production lies in the northwest of the Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP) [1,2]. The highest wheat-producing states in the IGP are Punjab and Haryana. There was a prolonged reduction in wheat yield during 2002–2010 in the states of Punjab and Haryana and this reduction significantly impacted the total Indian wheat yield [3]. An attempt was made to understand the wheat yield variability in northwest India with a focus on the prolonged reduction during the 2000s. Variation of wheat yield in the IGP can be caused by other factors such as sowing dates [6], soil moisture, and nitrogen application [7]
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