Exact sampling distributions from the infinite neutral alleles model

Abstract

The exact transient sampling distribution is found for the infinite neutral alleles model with mutation, thus extending the stationary distribution found by Ewens (1972). The first eigenfunction in the sampling distribution depends only on the homozygosity. In a large sample the expected number of allele types is close to the expected number in a stationary distribution and depends little on the initial frequencies or the time of sampling. The expected number of types in a sample for a non-stationary population is tabulated.The sampling distribution from a population with no mutation is found. The probability that the population is monomorphic given that the sample contains only one type is tabulated, where initially the population has a large number of alleles with equal frequencies.A study is made of the joint distribution of the allele frequencies in two samples taken timetapart from a stationary population. Of particular interest is the number of allele types in common in two such samples. The distribution of the number of types in common in a population viewed at timetapart is also found and tabulated for different mutation rates and time. The expected frequency of the allele types in common is tabulated.The distribution of allele frequencies in two divergent populations of common ancestry is shown to be the same as the distribution of frequencies in a single population at two time points 2tapart. A sufficient statistic for the time of divergence is shown to be the paired frequencies of the allele types in common. The expected waiting time until the populations have no allele types in common is tabulated.