Exact nuclear data uncertainty propagation for fusion neutronics calculations

Abstract

Recently, we have presented an exact method (now called “Total Monte Carlo”) to propagate uncertainties of fundamental nuclear physics experiments, models and parameters to different types of criticality-safety benchmarks. We now show that such exact uncertainty calculations are directly relevant to the optimal and safe design of fusion reactors by applying this methodology to a series of fusion shielding benchmarks, namely those connected to the Oktavian, Fusion Neutronics Source and LLNL Pulsed Sphere experiments. Uncertainties on neutron and gamma leakage fluxes for 13 shielding benchmarks are obtained, in the mass range from natMg to natW. Uncertainties for cross-sections, angular distributions, single- and double-differential emission spectra, and gamma-ray production cross-sections are considered in this uncertainty propagation scheme.