Exacerbated climate risks induced by precipitation extremes in the Yangtze River basin under warming scenarios

Abstract

The Yangtze River basin is a typical region of the world that has a well-developed economy but is also greatly affected by multiple climate extremes. An improved understanding of future climate trends and associated exposures in this region is urgent needed to address socioeconomic risks. This research aims to quantify historical and future projected population exposure to precipitation extremes in the Yangtze basin using meteorological records and downscaled climate models. The study found that the hazard zone for precipitation extremes during baseline period was primarily located in the mid-lower Yangtze basin, particularly around the Poyang Lake watershed. Climate projections for 2050 indicate a further increase in the occurrence of precipitation extremes in this hazard zone, while a decrease in extreme events is detectable in the upper Yangtze basin under higher radiative forcing. Future socioeconomic scenarios suggest a tendency for population growth and migration towards the lower Yangtze basin, resulting in aggravated climate risks in megacities. Multi-model simulations indicate that population exposure to precipitation extremes in the lower Yangtze basin will increase by 9–22% around 2050, with both climate and population factors contributing positively. Shanghai, Changsha, Hangzhou, Ganzhou, and Huanggang are identified as hotspot cities facing the highest foreseeable risks of precipitation extremes in the Yangtze basin.