Ex-Ante Flooding Damages’ Monetary Valuation Model for Productive and Environmental Resources

Abstract

The floods caused by river flooding are increasingly at the center of public attention and government agencies. This is due to climate change, a higher risk consciousness of settled populations, as well as the deteriorating state of water basins caused by the persistent absence of appropriate controls on the use of mountain and hilly territories. In Italy, the risk of flooding is particularly high, posing a significant social problem due to the number of victims and the damage inflicted on properties, industries, and infrastructure. This paper aims to examine the principles and methods of evaluating the damage caused to the territory by river flooding. Two evaluation models are developed for the formal definition of the variation law of damage caused by flooding, considering the return period of the flood event. The first model allows the evaluation of damage to the productive part of the territory affected by floods, while the second considers damage related to the environmental aspects.