Abstract
This study assesses the economic, social and environmental impacts of renewable and nuclear energy targets for global electricity generation by 2030. It examines different regions, as they might experience different impacts depending on the structures of their economies and their local natural resources, to understand the impact of these targets on their economics and well-being of their people. These regions are: Saudi Arabia, the United States (US), China, India, Europe and Rest of World (ROW). A well-known Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model, the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP), is modified and used to predict global economic shifts that would be triggered by two scenarios. The business as usual (BAU) scenario assumes that the current electricity mix remains unchanged until 2030. The Renewable and Nuclear Energy (RNE) scenario is based on the International Energy Outlook (IEO) 2016 prediction. The analysis shows that the GDP value of all regions, except India, is affected negatively. The study shows a loss of 4.45 million jobs worldwide in the RNE compared to the BAU. Finally, the implementation of planned renewable and nuclear energy slightly benefits the environment but not enough to mitigate rise in global temperature.
Highlights
Achieving a sustainable development target involves many factors
Many countries are committed to using renewable and nuclear energy to reduce their dependence on foreign petroleum and mitigate their greenhouse gas emissions [2]
The world’s most traded commodities such as oil and natural gas will be affected by this transition to renewable and nuclear energy, which results in sectorial shifts in domestic economies and their interactions through international trade [12]
Summary
Achieving a sustainable development target involves many factors. As electricity’s growth is the fastest among the end-use energy forms worldwide [1], a transition to renewable power is crucial for achieving sustainability. From the energy policy point of view, the study analyses the effect of global-scale renewable and nuclear targets on the world with focusing on the four biggest energy consumers and greenhouse gas (GHG) emitters [5]. From the mythological point of view, the model and database were modified to provide a more accurate representation of the reality. This includes the methodology that was used to calculate global direct and indirect employment effects
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