Abstract
AbstractAgricultural commodity research has very site‐specific productivity impacts. Crucial determinants of the magnitude and distribution of research benefits include agroecological conditions for technology generation and adoption, as well as commodity market‐structure. This paper presents a process for ex‐ante research evaluation which accounts for these factors with a dynamic, spatial multi‐market model. Simulation results based on sorghum research in Kenya demonstrate that potential research benefits can vary dramatically research program research target zones. In Kenya, however, population‐induced demand growth not technological development will have the greatest influence on future sorghum markets.
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