EVs meet health: A complex-systems policy integration approach for electric vehicle adoption and its impact on respiratory and cardiovascular disease

Abstract

The transition from gasoline-combustion to zero-emission vehicles represents one of the most ambitious public and private enterprises around the globe to mitigate air pollution and its subsequent effects on climate change. The present study uses the rapid transition in the state of California to analyze the connections between the increasing utilization of electric vehicles (EVs) and two critical health outcomes: Asthma and acute myocardial infarction (AMI) emergency department (ED) visits. We fit simultaneous quantile and interquartile-range regression models to health and sociodemographic data from the California Office of Health and Hazard Assessment and electric vehicles registration data, 2011–2017. Results show that changes in EV utilization, from 2011 to 2013 to 2015–2017, have larger and more favorable effects as asthma and AMI deteriorate across zip codes. Looking at zip codes located at the 75th and 25th percentiles of the change in the asthma- and AMI-related ED visits distribution, a 5-percentage points change in the EV-to-gasoline combustion utilization ratio is associated with a 25-percentage points (p<.01) and 12.5-percentage points (p<.01) decline in asthma- and AMI-related ED visits, respectively. Our findings also suggest that, should the U.S. meet the goals of Executive Order N-79-20 by 2035, we could observe about 37,000 fewer asthma-related ED visits (95% CI: 16,154–59,280) per year, with an overall possible annual savings of about $65.5 million dollars (95% CI: $29.1M – $106.7M), and a possible decline of about 19,292 AMI-related hospitalizations, with possible annual savings of about $425 million dollars (95% CI: $365M – $509M). Our findings are optimistic in that spillover effects from increasing EV utilization can reduce healthcare costs while improving population health. Research should point toward the development of public-private coalitional strategies to effectively bridge usually disparate sectors of the economy and policy-making like energy and health.