Abstract
Moore suggested an exponential growth of the number of transistors in integrated electronic circuits. In this paper, Moore’s law is derived from a preferential growth model of successive production technology generations. The theory suggests that products manufactured with a new production technology generating lower costs per unit have a competitive advantage on the market. Therefore, previous technology generations are replaced according to a Fisher-Pry law. Discussed is the case that a production technology is governed by a cost relevant characteristic. If this characteristic is bounded by a technological or physical boundary, the presented evolutionary model predicts an asymptotic approach to this limit. The model discusses the wafer size evolution and the long term evolution of Moore’s law for the case of a physical boundary of the lithographic production technology. It predicts that the miniaturization process of electronic devices will slow down considerably in the next two decades.
Highlights
The exponential growth of the number of transistors in integrated electronic circuits is known as Moore’s Law [1]
Since the costs per unit of a good are governed by the production technology, the presented evolutionary model suggests that manufacturers have a competitive advantage when they apply new generations of the production technology
Derived is the case that a process technology is governed by a cost relevant characteristic that is constrained by a technological or physical boundary
Summary
The exponential growth of the number of transistors in integrated electronic circuits is known as Moore’s Law [1]. In order to derive Moore’s law, the paper develops an evolutionary model of successive production technologies. Initiated by Nelson and Winter [3], the Neo-Schumpeterian literature focusses on production technologies and routines, while the technological evolution is suggested to be governed by a fitness related to some sort of cost functions It studies in particular technological and organizational opportunities [4, 5], while the impact of the market dynamics plays only a secondary role [6]. In the presented evolutionary model, not firms but product variants manufactured with different production technologies are regarded to suffer from a preferential growth process. The presented evolutionary model, allows an explicit derivation of Moore’s law for the case that the technological evolution of the DRAM production is constrained by a physical limit.
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