Abstract
Evolutionary history can explain species resemblance to a large extent. Thus, if closely related species share combinations of traits that modulate their response to environmental changes, then phylogeny could predict species sensitivity to novel stressors such as increased levels of deforestation. To test this hypothesis, we used 66,949 plots (25-m-radius) of the Spanish National Forest Inventory and modelled the relationships between local (plot-level) stem density of 61 Holarctic tree species and forest canopy cover measured at local and landscape scales (concentric circles centred on the plots with radiuses of 1.6, 3.2 and 6.4 km, respectively). Then, we used the output model equations to estimate the probability of occurrence of the species as a function of forest canopy cover (i.e. response to forest loss), and quantified the phylogenetic signal in their responses using a molecular phylogeny. Most species showed a lower probability of occurrence when forest canopy cover in the plots (local scale) was low. However, the probability of occurrence of many species increased when forest canopy cover decreased across landscape scales. We detected a strong phylogenetic signal in species response to forest loss at local and small landscape (1.6 km) scales. However, phylogenetic signal was weak and non-significant at intermediate (3.2 km) and large (6.4 km) landscape scales. Our results suggest that phylogenetic information could be used to prioritize forested areas for conservation, since evolutionary history may largely determine species response to forest loss. As such, phylogenetically diverse forests might ensure contrasted responses to deforestation, and thus less abrupt reductions in the abundances of the constituent species.
Highlights
Deforestation is one of the most ubiquitous threats to biodiversity [1], notably affecting species interaction networks [2], driving population shrinking [3], and leading to species extinction [4]
One might conclude that tree diversity in forest stands including many representatives of these lineages would be strongly affected by forest loss as opposed to more phylogenetically diverse forests, which might ensure contrasted responses of the constituent species and less abrupt reductions in their abundances
We propose that available phylogenetic information could be used as a complementary reference to functional-based approaches for devising species vulnerability to forest loss based on ancestordescendant relationships, and may provide a foundational basis to inform conservation planning
Summary
Deforestation is one of the most ubiquitous threats to biodiversity [1], notably affecting species interaction networks [2], driving population shrinking [3], and leading to species extinction [4]. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript
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