Evolutionary analysis of the global rare earth trade networks

Abstract

This study used social network analysis, spatial measurement, and network statistical analysis to study the relationships among countries in the global rare earth trade. Using data on rare earth products from the UN Comtrade database, the global rare earth trade network and its evolving topological characteristics are analyzed for the period 1999–2020. Spatial correlation analysis using the global Moran index showed that countries tended to carry out rare earth trade with neighboring countries, and there were certain spatial aggregations in the trade patterns. A temporal exponential random graph model (TERGM) was used to analyze the influencing factors and evolution of the global rare earth trade, and network motif analysis was used to analyze the influence of network topology on the trading network structure. The results showed that the global rare earth trade model presented the following characteristics: trade from one core country to many other countries, reciprocity between trading countries, and trade around near neighboring rare earth-rich countries. Other factors, such as countries with the same GDP levels and World Trade Organization (WTO) member countries, influenced the global rare earth trade but not the formation of the rare earth trade network. In examining the temporal dependence of rare earth trade networks over a 22-year period, it was found that the linkages of rare earth trade networks among countries remained relatively stable, pointing to the long-term dependence of countries with scarce rare earth resources on resource-rich countries.