Evolution trend analysis of carbon emissions in light industrial parks: A system dynamics approach

Abstract

AbstractThe industrial sector is China's major element of energy consumption and carbon emissions, and carbon emissions reduction in industrial parks has become an important foothold in carbon reduction work. Predicting the future evolution trend of carbon emissions in industrial parks under different policy orientations is of great significance for China to achieve the carbon emissions peaking and carbon neutrality goals. Based on the current status of electricity consumption and carbon emissions in industrial parks, this paper takes a light industrial park as the research object, analyzes the source of carbon emissions in this park, combines the characteristics of resource endowment and industrial structure, and considers the factors influencing society, load curve, energy supply and carbon sink, thus constructing a system dynamics model of carbon emission evolution for this park. Different influencing factors are selected to set multiple target scenarios, and the GDP, carbon emissions, carbon emissions reduction and near‐zero carbon evaluation coefficient of light industrial parks are used as characterization indicators for simulation analysis. The analysis results revealed that the comprehensive scenario set by increasing the maximum installed capacity of renewable energy units and raising the proportions of environmental and science and technology inputs while adjusting the industrial growth rate of the park performed best. In this scenario, the economic development of the park and the process of carbon emissions reduction are considered.